Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations [Enlarged Edition]

Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, it is highly unlikely President Mubarak will renege on his recent promise not to run for another presidential term or that Gamal Mubarak will now be a presidential contender--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation.