Inconvenient Data

This is a serious study of how the climate is changing based on the best available estimates of past global and sea surface temperatures. There is no doubt that the Earth's climate is warming. The analysis I will present in this book strongly suggests that CO2 is partially responsible for this warming. However, the global temperature record does not support the "climate catastrophe" predictions we all hear from the Consensus of Scientists. The data do support the conclusion that global temperatures are going to cool for the next 22 years and will remain below today's temperature for the next 32 years. Global temperature in 2100 is likely to be about the same as it is today. The Global Warming that takes place due to CO2 will be offset by a downward trend in temperatures caused by natural cyclic variations in climate that have occurred roughly every 64 years since 1850. This book is composed of two main parts: In the first part, a Global Temperature Model of climate change based on actual measured global temperature data is developed. In developing this model, it has been discovered that global temperatures have been following a series of periodic linear warming and cooling periods. The latest cooling period started in 2005 and should persist for 32 years. In the second part, this data based model's predictions of future temperatures are compared with the predictions produced by the IPCC computer simulations and endorsed by the Consensus of Scientists. I will show that the IPCC predictions are entirely incompatible with the measured temperature data. I will show that the Consensus of Scientists has made a serious error in "tuning" their simulations to match measured data. I will describe this error so that a lay person unskilled in technical matters will be able to understand exactly how and why the Consensus have made this mistake, the effect of which is to inflate the warming due to CO2 by a factor of 5X. And it is this 5X multiplication of the effect of CO2 that is responsible for the IPCC's "climate catastrophe" predictions. The actual climate data refute the assertion that such a "catastrophe" is immanent. Global temperature data do not provide any evidence about what is causing the climate to change, but they do provide evidence about how the climate is changing. I am going to use standard data analysis tools to coerce that data into giving up its secrets about how the climate is changing.