The Signal and the Noise

- Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

af


The Signal and the Noise
Du sparer Spar kr. 55,00 med Saxo Premium
  • Leveringstid 4-6 hverdage
  • Forventet levering 29-11-2019
Hvis du køber til medlemspris, bliver du automatisk medlem af Saxo Premium. De første 30 dage er gratis, derefter koster det 99,-/md. Medlemskabet fornyes automatisk og kan altid opsiges. Læs mere om alle fordelene her.
Format:
Bog, hardback
Udgivelsesdato:
28-09-2012
Sprog:
Engelsk
Sidetal:
544
  • Beskrivelse
  • Yderligere info
  • Anmeldelser

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."-The New York Times Book Review

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.



Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Andre udgaver:

Bog, paperback
Bog, ukendt format

Vis mereVis mindre

Udgivelsesdato:
28-09-2012
ISBN13:
9781594204111
Vægt:
801 g
Dybde:
32 mm
Bredde:
163 mm
Højde:
241 mm
Forlag:
Penguin LCC US
Format:
Hardback

Vis mereVis mindre

Vis mereVis mindre

Fandt du ikke hvad du søgte?

Hvis denne bog ikke er noget for dig, kan du benytte kategorierne nedenfor til at finde andre titler. Klik på en kategori for at se lignende bøger.

Velkommen til Saxo - din danske boghandel!

Hos os kan du handle som Gæst, Saxo-bruger eller Saxo Premium-medlem. Du bestemmer selv, og vores kundeservice sidder altid klar med hjælp.

Om medlemspriser hos Saxo

Hvis du køber til medlemspris, bliver du automatisk medlem og får del i de mange fede fordele. De første 30 dage er gratis for nye brugere, og derefter koster det kun 99,-/md. Medlemskabet fornyes automatisk, og du kan altid opsige det. Læs mere om fordelene ved Saxo Premium her.