Forecasting for Market and Strategic Decisions

Every decision has consequences. We make a decision and expect a certain outcome. Sometimes this expectation is explicit and very clear. And sometimes this outcome is implied but expected. Any decision without a forecast of its outcome can be disastrous. Either a personal, business, or organizational decision needs to be evaluated in full context. Unfortunately this is not always the case. The most important forecasts are for when things change, and past data by itself can lead to entirely incorrect forecasts. In the case of a new innovation, there is no past data, and frustrated statistical analysts might improperly try to use "analog" products or services from the past, but this approach will lead to incorrect forecasts and wrong decisions. One of the ways we often try to predict the future is to ask customers, leaders, citizens, buyers, and members of society or a particular group. But the most important thing to remember about a survey or a poll or market research is that the result of such interviewing is NOT by itself a forecast.