Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios with a focus on the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest. We describe the contemporary landscape and major existing climate trends using state climatological data, as well as potential future climate trends for this region using downscaled global data from general circulation models. We identify potential vulnerabilities by incorporating these future climate projections into species distribution and ecosystem process models and assessing potential changes to northern Wisconsin forests. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem drivers and increase stressors, including more frequent disturbances and increased amount or severity of pests and diseases. Forest ecosystems will continue to adapt to changing conditions.